Mathematics · Explorer

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ProbabilityRunning
Chance spinner. Winning tickets at 28 tickets. Actual probability 0.7 , Promised probability 0.35 . Currently actual probability is over by 0.35.TUNING
t = 0.0s

Actual probability

0.7

Promised probability

0.35

Actual probability is over by 0.35

28 tickets

Chance spinner. Winning tickets at 28 tickets. Actual probability 0.7 , Promised probability 0.35 . Currently actual probability is over by 0.35.

What has to balanceP(A)=favourabletotalP(A) = \frac{favourable}{total}

What is happening

You are called to a raffle for a community solar panel with a promised win rate.

The organisers cannot honour what they promised. 40 tickets are in the drum, they promised a 0.35 chance of drawing a winner, and the winning ticket count is wrong.